Established and Emerging Marketing Channels

A recent survey of 113 marketing executives confirms the current pattern of marketing channels. Display advertising, email marketing, search engine optimization, social media and online listings, plus paid search, are typical marketing venues.

Mobile advertising and applications, paid social media and game marketing are the emerging categories, Forrester Research finds.

Perhaps the most surprising finding is the 45 percent use of social media such as blogs, podcasts, widgets and discussion forums. Not so long ago, those were "emerging" and "experimental" channels.

These days, it is mobile apps and advertising and paid social media which seem poised to make the move from "experimental and emerging" status to "mainstream" levels of use.

Social Media and Email Best for Organic Lead Conversion

One of the most controversial topics in lead generation and online marketing in general is the best source of traffic for generating leads. After analyzing more than 2.2 million leads generated by its customers, Hubspot says.

Paid traffic and email marketing tended to have the highest conversion rates. Also, social media performed better than both organic SEO traffic and direct navigation.

Social Media and Email Best for Organic Lead Conversion

Multigenerational Homes on the Rise

Here's a trend you might think was created by the recession: younger people moving back home instead of living out on their own.

But it appears the number of younger people, and older people, living in multi-generational households has been growing for decades, according to the Pew Research Center.

It appears 1970 was the peak year for formation of single-generation households.

Marketing in a Broadband Context

The Future of Marketing in a Broadband Culture (FoDM Conference London)

You might be able to pull some nuggets from this presentation.

Technology and Telecom Marketing Spend Up in 2010, Gartner Say

Marketing spending among high-tech and telecom providers is picking up in 2010, according to Gartner. The survey found that 44 percent of survey respondents say their 2010 marketing budgets will be flat compared with 2009, 41 percent will increase and 15 percent are likely to decrease.

In 2009 when more than half of respondents reported their budgets would decrease, compared to 2008. None of that is too surprising.

The perhaps more important conclusion Gartner draws from the results is the possbility that there is a  "new normal" in which companies might adopt "steady state" spending habits that never return to their pre-recession levels. That would not be an unusual thought, either.

At least some observers say the increased ability to target messages using lower-cost media might simply mean that marketers can achieve their objects at less cost than previously was the case.

"Marketing has to continue to look at becoming more efficient and cost-effective," said Laura McLellan, research vice president at Gartner. "For some, this means adopting lower-cost alternatives; for others, outsourcing what was once done in-house; for all, it means revisiting how they plan to support the growth of their companies through traditional and new channels, while keeping the core brands strong."

Thirty percent of these companies expect to increase budgets by between one and 15 percent, while 13 percent of respondents are planning budget increases of between 16 and 30 percent or more.

Even though the ratio of in-house to external spending is planned to be about 1:3 in 2010, fixed and recurring costs are expected to consume the largest portion (23 percent) of the 2010 marketing budget, according to the majority of respondents. That will be followed by sales channel marketing and programs at 17 percent, and 15 percent of respondents identified positioning and external marketing communications.

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Competitive Pressure Remained the Story in 4Q 2009, Says Fitch Ratings

Competitive pressures remained strong throughout the industry in the fourth quarter of 2009, say analysts at Fitch Ratings, especially among local exchange carriers and cable companies, as those firms increasingly compete in identical spaces, with similar products.

The fourth quarter revealed especially aggressive marketing and competitive pricing and discounting strategies, Fitch says. This trend is expected to affect the competitive landscape going forward, especially putting pressure on average revenue per user and profit margins on discrete products.

The big problem for telco contestants is fixed voice line losses. Although high unemployment continues to affect sales of business lines, and the effect of wireless substitution continues, affecting residential lines, total access-line losses began to decelerate toward the end of 2009 as service bundling, including network-based video services offered by operators such as AT&T and Verizon continued to gain scale.

Cable operators had an arguably easier time, gaining high-speed data subscriber market share growth during the fourth quarter of 2009 despite a decrease in overall broadband additions caused by the persistently weak economy and maturation of the broadband market.

The wireless segment of the business arguably faced the fewest problems. Total wireless net additions were strong, says Fitch.

The industry’s capital spending grew by approximately 20 percent from the third to the fourth quarter of 2009 but remained below fourth-quarter 2008 levels. It is Fitch’s opinion that all communication service providers must invest in their respective networks in 2010 in order to maintain or improve their competitive positions.

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It doesn't appear that consumers view the iPad primarily as an e-book reader, but more as a media appliance, a comScore study suggests.

Though 37 percent of respondents indicated they were “likely” or “very likely” to read books on the device, nearly half indicated a high likelihood of using the iPad for browsing the Internet (50 percent) and receiving and sending email (48 percent).

More than one third said they would use it for listening to music (38 percent), maintaining an address book or contact list (37 percent), watching videos or movies (36 percent), storing and viewing photos (35 percent) and reading newspapers and magazines (34 percent). says comScore.

“These devices have the potential to be incredibly disruptive to the way consumers currently access digital content," says Serge Matta, comScore EVP.

The big issue is whether there exists a sizable market for a digital appliance somewhere between a netbook or notebook PC and an iPhone. In that regard, when asked whether they would use an iPad “instead of” or “in addition to” other digital devices, the highest amount of potential substitution was for the iPod Touch (37 percent).

Conversely, despite widespread belief that the iPad might threaten netbook adoption, only 22 percent of consumers said they would use an iPad in place of a netbook.

The most important device attributes that consumers indicated they would like to have included in the iPad were: ability to use multiple applications/programs at once (43 percent), having a screen the same size as a laptop or desktop computer (37 percent) and having a built-in camera (34 percent). Among iOwners, the percentages were substantially higher at 56, 66 and 51 percent, respectively.

Some 34 percent of males indicated they were likely to use the iPad for playing action, strategy or role-playing games, as did 28 percent of females. More than half of those 18 to 24 year olds (53 percent) said they were likely to use the iPad for gaming.

Younger consumers indicated a high willingness to pay for news and magazines specially formatted for e-readers. About 68 percent of 25 to 34 year olds and 59 percent of 35 to 44 year olds said they were willing to pay for this type of content.

If comScore's results prove to be correct, the iPad will emerge as a media appliance.

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CTIA Reports Gains, As It Always Does

Almost nothing is more predictable than the CTIA reporting that revenues, subscribers and wireless data increased over the last six-month period. In fact, many of us cannot remember a six-month period where that has not happened. So it is that the CTIA says wireless data service revenues increased 25.7 percent from the last half of 2008 to reach more than $22 billion for the last half of 2009, CTIA-The Wireless Association says.
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Wireless data revenues now represent more than 28 percent of all wireless service revenues. The number of data-capable devices has grown to 257 million units, up from 228 million at the end of 2008.

About 50 million of these devices are smart phones or wireless-enabled PDAs and nearly 12 million are wireless-enabled laptops, notebooks or aircards.

More than 822 billion text messages sent and received on carriers’ networks during the last half of 2009, amounting to almost five billion messages per day at the end of the year.

As of December 2009, the industry survey recorded more than 285 million wireless connections. This represents a year-over-year increase of more than 15 million.

Also, wireless penetration is now equal to more than 91 percent of the U.S. population, CTIA says.

Other highlights of the survey include wireless customers using more than 1.12 trillion minutes in the last half of 2009, up 38 billion from the last half of 2008—and breaking down to 6.1 billion minutes-of-use per day. Wireless service revenues for the last half of 2009 amounted to almost $77 billion—up from a little more than $75 billion in the last half of 2008.

AT&T Now Sells Triple-Play Bundles With Mobile Voice, Rather than Landline Voice

AT&T now allows consumers to buy a $99 triple-play bundle that allows customers to choose wireless as their voice option, rather than a fixed landline voice service.

The not-unexpected move shows both the appetite end users have for such packages, as well as AT&T's decision that now is the time to put more emphasis on gluing wireless users to the landline services, and less emphasis on using broadband and television to slow the rate of wireline erosion.

That isn't to say the original impulse is no longer important. It remains important for many customers. But the new bundles reflect the growing demand for wireless voice in triple-play bundles, rather than fixed line voice service.

AT&T "U-verse Choice" bundles start at $99 a month for three AT&T services, including U-family; U-verse High Speed Internet Pro (up to 3 Mbps downstream); and a choice of AT&T Nation 450 wireless voice or U-verse Voice 250 home phone.

Other packages featuring faster broadband speeds and more wireless or home phone calling minutes or more TV channels for $127 to $150 a month.

Where U-verse service is not available, customers can bundle DirecTV service with broadband and voice.

Weaker Market for Fixed Line Services Due in Part to Housing Market Changes

As if fixed-line providers of entertainment video, voice and broadband did not have enough problems, it appears there are fewer households to sell services to, these days.

Lower housing starts and a severe job market are obvious reasons why uptake of new services has been challenged.

But it appears there are other demographic changes at work as well. More young people, for example, are living longer with their parents than once was the case.

Also, more people in their 20s have moved back in with their parents. That is important as younger people represent one of the biggest groups of "single person" households. If there are fewer of those sorts of households, there are fewer potential occupied homes to sell services to.


A 2009 Pew Research survey found that among 22- to 29-years-olds, one-in-eight say that, because of the recession, they have boomeranged back to live with their parents after being on their own. That suggests as many as 12.5 percent of those 22 to 29 have removed themselves from the ranks of households with a possible need for fixed line communications or entertainment services.

Those trends, in turn, seem to have been driven by the recession's impact on younger workers.

According to a Pew Research Center analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, as of 2009 some 37 percent of 18- to-29-year-olds were either unemployed or out of the workforce, the highest share among this age group in nearly four decades.

In 2000 there were about 42 million people living in multi-generational households. In 2008 there were 49 million, and one suspects that number grew in 2009.

Make Sure You Keep Watching for about a Minute and a Half, You'll be Rewarded

Now this is truly clever, really.

What Future for Telecom Business of 2015 or 2020?

The telecommunications industry has experienced more change in the last decade than in its entire history, says IBM. Consider that, in 1999, only 15 percent of the world’s population had access to a telephone; by 2009, nearly 70 percent had mobile phone subscriptions.

So where will the industry be in five years, in 2015? While nothing is certain, forecasters at the IBM Institute for Business Value say they see four possible outcomes, and none of them offer rosy futures.

(click image for larger view)

In fact, IBM's scenarios likely mean further, and major, industry consolidation at a very minimum. The more-radical alternatives include fundamental industry restructuring in ways that separate network operations from retail operations.

In some of the scenarios where radical industry restructuring occurs, today's service providers might find themselves competing against device manufacturers or even today's suppliers of network infrastructure.

The key observation is that IBM presents a range of five-year scenarios that all involve significant pressure on service provider profit margins or gross revenue, or both. Further service provider consolidation is the least disruptive change in industry structure that could happen.

In half of the most-likely scenarios, the industry is structurally separated into wholesale network services operations and separate retail operators.

Keep in mind IBM believes it will take only five years for one of these scenarios to develop.

In one scenario, which IBM calls "survivor consolidation," consumer spending for communications drops, leading to industry "stagnation or decline."

In this rather-bleak scenario, developed market operators have not significantly changed their voice communications and "closed" connectivity service portfolios and also have failed to expand horizontally or into new verticals.

That will trigger an Investor loss of confidence in the telecommunications sector, which produces a cash crisis and leads to industry consolidation.

In an alternate scenario IBM calls "market shakeout," carriers are structurally reshaped into separate wholesale and retail businesses, and the market is further
fragmented by government, municipality and alternative providers.

In this scenario private capital is available only to dense urban areas. Telecom provider growth occurs in large part through sales of services to business partners.

In a third scenario called "clash of giants,"  carriers consolidate, cooperate and create alliances to compete with "over the top" providers and device manufacturers or even equipment suppliers.

In a fourth scenario IBM calls the "generative bazaar," open access infrastructure leads to more competition from "asset light" and over the top competitors.

It is easy to dismiss the level of change the last 10 years has wrought. It might be easy to dismiss the level of change IBM believes can happen in just another five years. As always, the forecast might be too aggressive in terms of its timetable.

The major implication, though, is that the telecom industry might well be a very-different sort of business by 2020, if not by 2015. If you look at revenue sources, it is virtually certain that in developed markets, less revenue--in some cases far less revenue--will be earned from voice and text services.

More revenue will be earned from broadband services, and possibly from business partners rather than end users.

Telco Choice is Not "Dumb Pipe" or "Service Enabler" or "Service Provider"

There's no question that the fundamental business underpinning of the entire global telecommunications business is undergoing a fundamental change from "voice driven" to "broadband driven," and, to a certain extent, from "services" to "access."

That leads to a fear that the future is one of "dumb pipe" access services providing modest revenue and slimmer profit margins than any existing provider can tolerate, without significant downsizing of operational cost.

Many observers suggest service providers will gradually take on more "application enabler" roles, supporting third-party business partners.

At the same time, there is debate about the degree to which any existing video or voice service provider will be able to continue doing so in the future.

But those three choices are not mutually exclusive. For better or worse, "dumb pipe" access is a permanent foundation for every telco, mobile, cable, satellite or fixed wireless provider. That is precisely what "broadband access" is; a simple "access" service.

That does not mean "only" access will be provided. There likely will be some permanent role for managed video, voice, storage, backup and other services. At some combination of value and price, users simply will prefer to buy such "services" rather than use comparable applications.

At the same time, it is likely service providers will find ways to grow the percentage of their revenue earned by supplying services to business partners. That might include billing services, location and device information, hosted processing or storage services.

"Dumb pipe" access is not the only business of the future, but it is foundational, and permanent. In addition to that, though, today's service providers necessarily will have to grow the proportion of revenue they make from "enabling" services, as they manage a likely decline of "services" such as basic voice communications or multi-channel video.

And it is not necessarily that those services decline because of a shift in user demand. The simple existence of capable competitors means market shifts will occur, irrespective of any conceivable shifts of demand. In other words, one does not have to make a definitive bet on "over the top" voice or video to plan on lower revenue from existing voice or video sources. One simply must assume that capable competitors will take some amount of market share.

In other words, at the level of discrete enterprises, cable executives have to anticipate declining video customer base and revenue contribution, while telcos have to assume declining gross voice revenue. No shift of demand to online video or VoIP need be assumed.

To be sure, those forces likely will be factors. But it is not the case that a stark choice must be made between the "dumb pipe" access provider and the "service enablement" or "service provider" roles. All three will remain parts of the overall revenue stream.

Consumer Price Points for Recurring Subscriptions are Fairly Clear

One might infer from average pricing for a variety of services ranging from fixed telephone service to broadband access, wireless and multi-channel video service that consumers have price sensitivity for any single service above $50 a month.

According to researchers at Pew Research and the Federal Communications Commission,  fixed voice costs about $48 a month. Wireless costs about $50 per user, while multi-channel video costs about $60 a month and broadband access costs about $40 a month.

Some of you immediately will note that your own spending is higher than these average figures suggest, with the greatest variability occurring in the mobile arena, as that is a service bought a person at a time, where the other services are bought household by household.

That's worth keeping in mind when surverys suggest there is robust consumer demand for just about any new application or service. Very few products ever have gotten mass adoption at prices above $300. Very few subscription products ever have gotten mass adoption at prices above $50 a month.

That doesn't mean it cannot be done; obviously it can. It simply is to point out that getting lots of consumers to buy a new recurring service at prices ranging from $5 to $10 a month is a big deal.

That's the reason so much consumer-focused content is advertising supported.

Are Broadband, Voice, TV and Mobile Services Really Commodities?

Both industry executives and consumers might sometimes be accused of viewing mobile, voice, broadband and multi-channel TV services as "commodities." Whether that is true, and to what extent, is, and ought to be, a matter of debate, not certitude.

Consider Verizon and DirecTV, for example. You might say that both provide services that other key competitors also provide, and that the features and prices are, at some level, comparable and even similar.
But their offerings are not identical with the offerings of their key competitors, and that appears to be by design, not accident.

DirecTV is the biggest satellite pay-TV provider in the United States and competes with other satellite and cable providers.  But that doesn't mean it competes for an identical set of customers, even though there is much overlap.

The company is not exceptionally distinct in aiming to grow revenues in the future by focusing on average revenue per user growth more than growth in the number of subscribers. Indeed, virtually every provider expects to do that.

Nor is DirecTV distinct in that regard. In a competitive, multi-product market, virtually every provider seeks to get more revenue by selling more things to existing customers, not simply adding new customers.
But DirecTV and Verizon seem to be focusing on higher-spending customers, compared to the other competitors in each of their markets.

DirecTV focuses on "higher-quality" subscribers who tend to pay extra for its advanced services like high-definition and digital video recorder  service. In the fourth quarter of 2009, about 70 percent of new DirecTV subscribers signed up for HD and DVR services, for example.  Overall HD-DVR penetration amongst DirecTV’s subscriber base amounting to about 60 percent.

Some observers expect DirecTV’s HD-DVR penetration to increase to 80 percent by about 2016.
DirecTV plans to offer new services include mulit-room viewing and new broadband applications as well. DirecTV Cinema is a movie service that will allow subscribers to watch certain films through DirecTV as soon as they are released on DVDs.

Verizon likewise tends to focus on higher-spending customers as well.

The point is that even as broadband, mobile, voice and multi-channel TV services are highly competitive, they are not, in the strict sense, "commodities." It might not matter whether a sugar product was made from beets or sugar cane. It can, and often does matter, that a firm's customer service, features, devices, packaging or pricing are distinct.

Canadian Video Providers Test Partial "A La Carte" Buying of Video Channels

In an important test of market demand, Canadian cable and telco multi-channel video providers are beginning to test market demand for more-flexible ways of selling cable channels. It isn't a full-blown switch to à la carte television, but will provide an important test of how well consumers like the ability to buy service in ways that might offer more targeted buying of channels they actually watch.

Bell Canada now is offering a more-granular approach to buying multi-channel TV service. The service is being introduced in Bell Canada's Quebec service territory.

The company says it will allow television customers to subscribe to individual channels, rather than the standard bundles that have been the mainstay of the multi-channel video business.

Customers must first take a basic $25 package that includes standard channels such as Global, CTV, CityTV and CBC, and can then choose 15 channels for $15, 20 for $19 or 30 for $22. Bell is also offering individual channels for $2 each.

"TV just got better for subscribers in Quebec, who now have the ultimate control and flexibility to get the channels they want," says Kevin Crull, Bell's president of residential services.

Vidéotron already offers similar options, with basic service and 15 extra channels starting at $37 a month.

Quebec has been one of the most competitive regions for telecommunications, with some of the lowest prices in the country, says the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

Bell Canada apparently is not offering à la carte channels in Ontario, its other main television territory.

Rogers, Bell's chief TV rival in Ontario, does offer individual channels on top of basic service at a typical cost of $2.79 each. Basic television services in Ontario from both Bell and Rogers start at around $35 and $30, respectively.

So far, no U.S. provider has taken this route, but consumer demand will be watched closely for any signs the practice might be useful in the U.S. market as a way of providing service differentiation.

Users Prefer Flat-Rate Pricing. Duh!

Mobile internet users across the United Kingdom and United States prefer flat-rate pricing, a new survey by YouGov has found. That finding should surprise nobody in the U.S. market, given the development of the whole Internet access business since AOL dropped metered billing and went to flat rate packaging.

Unsurprisingly, respondents said they would use the mobile Web more if flat rate access is available. That does not necessarily suggest consumers would reject flat-rate plans that are tiered for usage, even if any rational consumer would say they prefer a low flat rate for unlimited usage.

Smartphone users might be used to low rate, unlimited access, but users of mobile PC dongles and cards are well accustomed to the idea that usage and price are related for "buckets" of usage.

Some 4,324 consumers,18 or older, were polled as part of the study.

In the United Kingdom, 33 percent of respondents  reported that they don't use the Internet despite having access on their phone, while 25 percent of U.S. respondents with an Internet-ready phone say they do not use that feature.

The study also found that users want Web sites and services optimized for their specific mobile device, especially if it means that they could more quickly access the services they want. About 32 percent of respondents say that would increase their usage.

About 51 per cent of all respondents said they were only prepared to spend up to three minutes surfing for a specific piece of content on their phones, emphasizing the importance of navigation and usability.

About 13 percent of U.K. users, and 17 percent of U.S. respondents now access the Internet more than once a day from their phones. About 27 per cent of U.K. consumers and 28 percent of U.S. consumers surveyed now use the mobile Internet at least once a week, if not more.

Video and Web Drive Mobile Bandwidth Consumption

Mobile bandwidth demand already is driven by video and Web access, a new analysis by Allot shows (click on image for larger view).

And though peer-to-peer applications were the cause of bandwidth fears several years ago, most video activity now occurs using HTTP, meaning it is now part of the Web browser experience.

As is true for backbone networks and fixed networks, voice, instant messaging, email and all other apps besides video and Web applications are a negligible driver of bandwidth consumption.

That doesn't mean revenue reflects bandwidth use. Revenue still is inordinately driven by voice and texting. Over time, that will change. If broadband is what is driving use of the network, then broadband has to become the mainstay of the revenue model as well.

Which Growth Pattern Emerges as Recession Ends?

Many economists and market watchers think consumers eventually will return to spending patterns as they existed prior to the recent recession, and on the growth pattern of the 20 years before the recession.

Others warn that growth patterns are more likely to revert to patterns of the 1945 to 1970s, when annual growth in consumer spending was much more restrained.

So the question for many might be, which view is right? For application and service providers, the question might not be as germane. The reason is that consumer spending on network-delivered services and applications was stable over the entire period, and in fact has shown a slow, steady growth.

In other words, people are shifting more of their available entertainment budget to network-based products. Communications spending likewise has slowly grown its percentage of overall discretionary spending, not fluctuating wildly from one year to the next.

Of course, lots of other background factors have changed. There are more products, more applications, more services and providers to choose from.

The value of many products has taken on an increasing "network services" character as well. Consider the value of a PC without Internet access, for example.

The point is that whichever forecast proves correct--either a return to the growth trend of the past two decades, or a reversion to the lower spending growth of the years 1945 to 1979, network-based products are likely to continue a slow, steady, upward growth trend. That may not be true for other industries.

The "Problem" With Nexus One is the Retail Packaging, Not the Phone

By some accounts, the Google Nexus One phone has not sold as many units as some might have hoped. Flurry, a mobile analytics firm, estimates that 20,000 Nexus Ones were sold in the first week. That tracks poorly compared to the myTouch3G, which sold up to 60,000, and the Motorola Droid, which sold 250,000 in the first week.

Some people really like the idea of "unlocked" phones, despite the full retail price, as the price of gaining freedom to use "any" carrier (in the U.S. market two of four major carriers). But so far, most U.S. consumers seem to prefer the old "closed" model, where they get discounts on devices in exchange for contracts.

Beyond that, there is the clumsy customer support process. Users can email Google and get an answer within 48 hours. I don't know about you, but if any service provider took that long to get back to me when I have a problem, they will not be my service provider much longer than that. I can easily find a replacement provider within two days.

But that's the problem with Google's current model. With the current model, a customer contacts Google, and hopes the problem is not something the carrier (T-Mobile) or HTC (the device manufacturer) has to fix.

That's no slam on the device. But the customer interface is wrong. People are used to buying from one retailer that "owns" the customer service responsibility. And people will not be happy with two termination fees for early cancellation of a contract--one charged by T-Mobile USA and a separate restocking fee levied by Google.

Ignoring the amount of the fee and the logic, that's just going to make people mad. People generally understand the early termination fee. But they don't expect to pay twice.

Unlocked phones have sold better in Europe, but there is a huge difference between the U.S. market and Europe. In Europe, when one buys an unlocked device at full price, it really does work on all networks. In the United States, Verizon and Sprint use the CDMA air interface while AT&T and T-Mobile use the GSM air interface.

So an unlocked phone will only work on half of those networks. Under such conditions, the value of an unlocked phone is dramatically reduced. But most consumers don't really care about air interface or "locking."

They are used to a retail relationship where they know who owns the product and process. And there still is not much evidence to indicate the value of an unlocked, full retail device is more important than the comfort of knowing who is responsible when something doesn't work properly.

Despite the generally-accepted wisdom that "open" ecosystems innovate faster (which is true), that doesn't mean customer experience is better. As Apple has shown time and again, a closed, tightly-integrated approach can produce a much-better experience and lots of innovation at the same time.

So far, it doesn't appear the unlocked Nexus One model is doing that.