Tough Christmas Selling Season for Consumer Electronics is Forecast

The 2010 Christmas selling season for consumer electronics isn't looking so good, says Stephen Baker, NPD Group VP, at least from the retailer and manufacturer standpoint. Pricing levels continue to flatten, so average selling prices are flat.

Consumers have come to expect 20 percent to 25 percent price declines every year, so small movements of five percent or less are unlikely to inspire them to rush into the stores and buy.

The other issue is that consumers are in the midst of technology "refresh" cycles. Just half of all flat-panel TV purchases are now made by first-time buyers. And more than 80 percent of the notebook installed base was less than three years old at the time of NPD’s Household Penetration survey earlier in 2010.

With the possible exception of Apple's iPad and other new tablets, there does not seem to be some compelling new application or device to prompt a big upsurge in buying, Baker suggests.

Also, the 2010 Christmas selling season will face tough comparisons with the 2009 holiday season. In 2009, categories such as flat-panel TVs saw 25 percent sales increases, and notebooks were up twice that amount. It always is tougher to show current period growth when the comparison is to an earlier period with robust sales growth.

The exception will be the iPad and tablets, in all likelihood.

NPD’s research also indicates worsening consumer sentiment. "Consumers who were considering just cutting back on  purchases are now not planning to buy anything at all," says Baker.

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Mobile is Most-Owned U.S. Gadget

Of what it calls the "seven key appliances of the information age," the mobile phone is far and away the device of choice for U.S. consumers, say researchers at the  Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project.

Fully 85 percent of Americans now own a cell phone, including 96 percent of people 18 to 29 years old.

About 76 percent of Americans own either a desktop or laptop computer as well. Since 2006, laptop ownership has grown dramatically (from 30 percent to 52 percent) while desktop ownership has declined slightly.

Just under half of American adults (47 percent) own an MP3 player such as an iPod, a nearly five-fold increase from the 11 percent who owned this type of device in early 2005, the Pew Research Center says.

Game consoles are nearly as common as MP3 players, as 42 percent of Americans own a home gaming device. Parents (64 percent) are nearly twice as likely as non-parents (33 percent) to own a game console.

Tablet computers and e-book readers, as you would expect, have not reached those levels of ownership, yet. However, these devices are proving popular with traditional early adopter groups such as the affluent and highly educated, the Pew Center reports.

Ownership rates for tablets and e-book readers among college graduates and those earning $75,000 or more per year are roughly double the national average.

DT Gets iPhone?

T-Mobile appears to be the exclusive carrier for the iPhone in Germany next week. Apple reportedly has a revenue sharing deal similar to that with at&t, in which Apple collects a portion of the monthly subscription fees. Pricing will reportedly be set at 399 Euros ($554) for an 8GB model. It isn't clear whether 3G support is forthcoming.

Pantech Duo for at&t

Touch screen smart phones aren't universally desired. So at&t is introducing a dual-sliding phone like the Helio Ocean, but using the Windows Mobile 6 operating system. The Pantech Duo uses the 3G network, , a sleek-looking dual-slider that zips along on their 3G HSDPA network, has a 1.3-megapixel camera, and can do push email.

Samsung Croix for Vodafone

As expected, the iPhone is changing smart phone design, pushing devices in the direction of more capability as media players. That ultimately will have repercussions for enterprise information technology managers as well, since business users are going to want to use such devices.

The Samsung F700V Croix will be introduced by Vodafone as an "iPhone killer" when Apple's device is introduced in European markets.

The Croix features a 3.2-inch touchscreen and 3G access using HSDPA running at a 3.6Mbps peak download rate. It has front and rear cameras for video calling and capture. The Croix should play AAC and MP3 songs as well as H.264, MPEG-4, and Real videos.

The device closely resembles the minimalist design of Apple's iPhone. A single navigation button near the bottom of the phone resembles the single button on Apple's iPhone, while rounded corners and a rectangular shape give the Ultra Smart F700 an iPhone-like appearance. The device includes a slide-out keyboard to accommodate typing and Web browsing.

The Croix also features 5-megapixel camera offering auto-focus.