Will Tablets Depress Mobile Broadband Sales?

It's too early to tell, but one wonders whether tablet sales actually will depress some amount of mobile broadband data plan sales int he short term, even though logic suggests they will increase demand, long term.

It has become routine over the last two years to hear executives at cable and telecom companies point to the sluggish economy and low housing starts as the reason for similarly stubborn consumer resistance to spending more money on some services.

It looks like nothing has changed since the start of 2009. That's significant because it suggests consumers are making deliberate choices in spending on tablets that basically come down to funding tablet purchases by not spending elsewhere in the household budgets. 

It might only be slight issue at the moment, or a near term issue, but one wonders whether a shift to Wi-Fi-using mobile devices is beginning to lessen demand for smartphones, higher-end smartphones and data plans. And, if so, the related question is whether the substitution is just a temporary issue.

Most reports seem to suggest that most iPads, for example, are Wi-Fi units, not 3G-connected. If tablet popularity grows, and at this point it seems to be growing, then more discretionary end user income could be shifted to device purchases and reliance on Wi-Fi, and away from smartphone data plans or PC dongles.

It won't take a user long to figure out that he or she can buy an iPad for about 10 months worth of a 3G mobile data plan costing $60 a month, or an Android tablet for the equivalent of 10 months of smartphone service at $30 a month.

For many users, that will be a trade off that seems logical, since at least half of all iPad use seems to occur at home, where most people have Wi-Fi, while perhaps 10 percent to 25 percent takes place at work, where there often is Wi-Fi. It does not appear that many people actually use their iPads "in transit."

Long term, one suspects tablet ownership will increase appetite for, and use of, mobile broadband services. Ironically, such demand might also lessen appetite for sizable smartphone data plans. Some users might conclude that a Mi-Fi type service, which can supply Wi-Fi for a tablet, smartphone and notebook, all at once, works well enough.

Wi-Fi Access Plays Key Access Role for Apple Devices and Users

In case you were wondering about the growing role played by Wi-Fi access as a way of offloading smartphone traffic from the mobile network, about 24 percent of U.S. traffic in May 2010 used Wi-Fi, with very heavy usage by Apple iPod and iPhone users.

The iPod "Touch," of course, must use Wi-Fi, which accounts for its heavy profile.

Starbucks Digital Network Launches

Starting July 1, 2010, Starbucks is enabling free Wi-Fi at its U.S. company operated stores, and launching the Starbucks Digital Network, which will offer unique content, including unrestricted access to paid sites such as the the Wall Street Journal, as well as content from iTunes, The New York Times, Patch, USA TODAY, The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo! and Zagat.
    
Set to debut in the fall, and offered at U.S. company-operated Starbucks stores, Starbucks Digital Network will allow customers free unrestricted access to various paid sites and services including previews, free downloads, local community news and activities.

Developed in partnership with Yahoo! and using AT&T access, the new network aims to create a unique customer experience that also deepens customer engagement.  The new plan further illustrates the public Wi-Fi business model, which frequently "gives away" the access as an inducement to support some other business model.

Google's Wi-Fi Gaffe

As Google prepares to defend itself against allegations of Wi-Fi spying, it has said very little about exactly what kind of personal data it gathered as part of its Street View project.

Last week, Google also declined to provide executives willing to speak on the record about how one of the most monumental oversights in its history occurred: the inadvertent gathering of 'payload' data by Wi-Fi sniffers mapping hotspots while recording street scenes for Google Street View.

Google admitted on May 14 that it had been "mistakenly collecting samples of payload data from open (i.e. non-password-protected) Wi-Fi networks" for three years. Payload data is distinct from a "header," which contains mostly benign information about the network itself: The payload is the actual data that is being transmitted over the network.

However, Google's store of personal data might not be quite the treasure trove it may seem. Data sent back and forth between encrypted Web sites (password logins, online banking, credit-card transactions, or anything with https:// in the URL) would not be collected. Mobile workers signed into VPNs would also not be affected.

In addition, it's not totally clear how much data Google would be able to capture with a Street View car moving at about 25 miles per hour along the streets of cities and towns around the world. Google said the data was "fragmented," implying that piecing together any coherent image from that data would be difficult.

Deciphering Google's Wi-Fi headache (FAQ) | Relevant Results - CNET News

50 Million Femtocells by 2014?

More than 50 percent of mobile data sessions originate indoors, say researchers at the Yankee Group.

And since 40 percent to 60 percent of mobile operator operational expense is attributable to backhaul transmission costs, Jennifer Pigg, Yankee Group analyst, expects data offload solutions, ranging from femtocells to Wi-Fi,  to be a growing area of interest.

Indeed, 60 carriers are in femto trials, with 13 commitments and nine commercial services already launched (AT&T, Vodafone, SFR, China Unicom, DoCoMo, SoftBank, Optimus, StarHub, Sprint and Verizon).

AT&T Launches Free Wi-Fi In Times Square

AT&T is launching a free wi-fi network for its customers in New York City's Times Square, obviously designed to take a load off the 3G network.

The move illustrates both the importance of wireless offload strategies as well as a changing role for fixed-line networks, which are assuming much more importance as mobile video consumption increases.

That might provide small comfort to fixed-line service providers, but comfort nevertheless. The fundamental answer for why broadband fixed line networks will remain relevant in a market that emphasizes mobile service has to do with superior bandwidth.

Fixed lines will remain the "best" way to deliver huge quantities of video to end users, in many venues, including both the linear multi-channel video and over-the-top Internet modes.

AT&T Launches Free Wi-Fi In Times Square To Take A Load Off Its Battered 3G Network

Gap Between Bandwidth and Revenue is Key Wireless Business Challenge

In a nutshell, the gap between bandwidth consumption and revenue is the key problem faced by mobile service providers. The reason is simple enough. Everybody agrees the future industry revenue model will be driven by data services, not voice.

And though service providers will sell a mix of simple connectivity services and other value-added features and services, access will remain a huge, perhaps the biggest single revenue source, even in the future.

Given user resistance to paying higher prices for bandwidth, service providers will struggle to close the gap between rising supply of bandwidth and slower-growing ability to price the additional capabilities in any linear fashion.

That is one reason why offloading access from the mobile networks to the fixed landline network is so important, and why a developing rationale for landline network services providers is "wireless offload." Especially as high-bandwidth video becomes a bigger part of the end user demand, it will be necessary to offload as much of the load as possible to fixed networks.

Cablevision, Time Warner Cable, Comcast Federate New York Hotspots

Federation nearly always is good for widespread adoption of any application. Email and text messaging provide recent examples, as usage exploded once messages were made interoperable. But one can point to any number of other examples, including railroad, telegraph and telephone services, each of which benefitted from interoperability.

A positive usage effect likely will happen for cable public hotspot users as Cablevision Systems Corp., Time Warner Cable Inc. and Comcast Corp. have agreed to allow their broadband Internet subscribers to roam freely across the Wi-Fi deployments of all three major cable operators in the New York metro area.

The agreement will allow customers of those companies to use Wi-Fi for no additional charge in places like Madison Square Park in Manhattan, areas of the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons on Long Island.

In key ways, the agreement attempts to keep pace with public hotspot access offered by Verizon Communications and AT&T. The issue isn't so much the public hotspot access as such, but the fact that cable modem, DSL and wireless dongle services now typically come with "no additional charge" Wi-Fi hotspot access. So any provider that can offer free Wi-Fi at more locations has an advantage retaining and acquiring fixed broadband access customers.

Apple iPad Will Use AT&T 3G Network

Apple's new iPad will use Wi-Fi and also AT&T's 3G wireless network. Users can opt for using Wi-Fi only, as iTouch users do, or can buy 3G service. AT&T offers a 250-megabyte plan for $15 a month, and an unlimited plan for $30, neither requiring a contract.

Those pricing levels more closely resemble an iPhone data plan than a data card subscription, which costs $60 a month, and typically requires a contract.

Some observers might say the iPad subscriptions represent a "higher-quality" or higher-margin revenue source than is typical for iPhone subscriptions, which also represent $30 a month in fees, because AT&T gets the traffic without having to factor in a subsidy for the devices.

One issue is how much data iPad users will consume. Users of the iPhone typically consume about 400 megabytes a month, where mobile PC card users tend to consumer about 2 gigabytes a month. A reasonable estimate is that iPad usage will fall somewhere between those levels.

Public Wi-Fi: Smartphones Driving Usage

Originally envisioned as a for-fee service used by users who wanted Internet access for their notebooks, public Wi-Fi hotspots increasingly are used by smartphone users.

As a percentage of total sessions, handheld access increased from 20 percent in 2008 to 35 percent in 2009, according to In-Stat.. By 2011 handhelds are anticipated to account for half of hotspot connections.

There are lots of reasons for the trend. The number of devices equipped with Wi-Fi capability is growing fast. In-Stat estimates that, from 2007 to 2008, Wi-Fi-equipped device sales inreased more than 50 percent. Service providers also are encouring users by offering Wi-Fi hotspot access as an amenity to their fixed broadband, smartphone or PC card customers.

More devices able to use Wi-Fi, plus a "no incremental cost" charging model are boosting activity. The other development is use of devices other than PCs and phones that can use Wi-Fi. The Apple iPod "touch" is perhaps the best example, but In-Stat points out that shipments of Wi-Fi-enabled entertainment devices, such as cameras, gaming devices, and personal media players, will increase from 108.8 million in 2009 to 177.3 million in 2013.

Verizon Gives Fixed, Mobile High-Speed Internet Access Customers Free Public Wi-Fi

Though it has not extended the offer to its smartphone users, Verizon Wireless has given some of its fixed broadband access customers (those on plans supporting a minimum of 3 Mbps in the downstream direction) and mobile broadband customers "no incremental cost" access to about 10,000 public Wi-Fi hotspots in the United States.

Verizon Wi-Fi is available in locations across the United States, including airports, bookstores, coffee shops, hotels and other public locations. The service is also available at locations in Canada and Mexico.

The new feature is available to mobile broadband customers using Verizon Wi-Fi supported devices, including the Mobile Broadband USB modem, PC Card, "ExpressCard," Verizon Wireless MiFi 2200 Intelligent Mobile Hotspot, or a notebook or netbook with "Mobile Broadband Built-In" running Windows 7, 2000, XP or Vista.

When within range of a Verizon Wi-Fi hotspot, customers can use "VZAccess Manager" to connect with a Wi-Fi-enabled notebook or netbook computer. When they are ready to move, but want to remain connected, or if they want the added security of the Verizon Wireless network, customers can simply switch back to Verizon Wireless’ 3G wireless network, which is the largest and most reliable in the country.

To use Verizon Wi-Fi, customers must also have VZAccess Manager version 7.2 or higher installed on their PCs.

Wi-Fi Hotspot Market Increasingly Provides "Mobile Offload"

Some proponents once touted Wi-Fi hotspots as an alternative to mobile or out-of-home broadband service. It increasingly look as though the Wi-Fi hotspot is emerging as a way of offloading traffic from the mobile network, as well as a way of supporting mobile devices that do not have data plans.

In-Stat estimates that hotspot usage will increase in 2009 by 47 percent, bringing total worldwide connects to 1.2 billion.

“Mobile operators have become increasingly involved in the hotspot market globally as they assess the potential of hotspots to offload wireless data traffic from overburdened 3G networks," says says Frank Dickson, In-Stat analyst.

Also, mass market adoption of Wi-Fi-enabled smartphones has significantly altered hotspot usage, with these devices accounting for the majority of access sessions in some locations,” he says.

Total worldwide hotspot venues will reach 245,000 locations in 2009, while AT&T is on course to experience 500 percent usage growth, year over year, In-Stat notes.

Quantifying the Carrier Wi-Fi Hotspot Business Model

Customer retention--not direct customer fees--might be the biggest part of the carrier public hotspot busimess model, says Stephen Rayment, CTO, BelAir Networks.

"Churn reduction is where lots of the value is," is Rayment. Assume churn per month of two percent a month, which means a typical customer provides 50 months of revenue, he says.

Adding metro hotspot access can provide a 10 percent churn reduction, he adds. Assume the 10 percent churn benefit on a typical subscriber relationship of 50 months, meaning the typical account now remains active for 55 months. Assume a typical customer average revenue per user of $130 a month.

That suggests an extra $650 of subscriber revenue over the length of a relationship. For a service provider with 100,000 subscribers that works out to $65 million in extra revenue.

If the average customer value is $2,000 per customer, and that service provider can use public hotspot service to reduce churn 10 percent, it adds about $200 per subscriber in terms of equity value.

For a service provider with one million subscribers, that's $200 million in incremental equity revenue.

For a service provider with one million subs, making an investment of $40 million to cover all the high-traffic spots, there is a five-to-one return on investment.

There arguably could be other revenue contributors as well, though none likely approaches the value of enhanced retention. There might be an opportunity for a small amount of additional revenue. Some customers will be willing to be stand-alone hotspot subscriptions.

Service providers might make some money from other carriers by offering hotspot access to customers roaming into the local area. There could be some advertising upside or some commercial upside from providing services to public utilities or public safety organizations, he says.

Some service providers also might look at public Wi-Fi as a way to add some mobility features to their landline service.

Mobile providers also likely will find public hotspots a useful way to offload traffic from the 3G and 4G networks to the fixed network, Rayment says.

"The networks are just choking" because of heavy new smartphone traffic, says Rayment. "People really did not see this until the iPhone, but 3 in the U.K. market also saw skyrocketing demand when it started selling the iPhone," says Rayment.

Up to this point, aircards and dongles used for mobile PC connections have been driving new bandwidth demand on the 3G and WiMAX networks. But that is changing. "Dongles drove the initial demand, but will be overtaken by the smartphone," he says.

The point is that the business model for public hotspot networks frequently is indirect.

MiFi: What's the point?

By most accounts, MiFi is getting a warm end user reception. Novatel Wireless, which makes the MiFi, posted a third-quarter profit, reversing last year's loss, as strong sales of its MiFi personal Wi-Fi hotspot. Novatel recently surprised Wall Street analysts by revealing it had received $100 million in orders for the MiFi in the first two months.

Novatel executives think the MiFi could be a new product category someplace between a dongle and a smartphone. That remains to be seen, as consumers ultimately will decide what the value is, and how big the value is.

The MiFi creates a mobile, personal hotspot for up to five devices using a single 3G connection. For some, it might be a more-convenient dongle or aircard for PCs. If so, the difference might turn on such simple issues as whether a device that requires use of a USB port is less functional than a device that doesn't require use of a port.

For others, the advantages will be the ability to connect devices without USB ports to a Wi-Fi network.  Dual-mode smartphones might provide one example, but they probably don't provide the biggest obvious benefit, especially when those smartphones have 3G connections.

More obvious value will be garnered by users of iPod "Touch" or other devices that operate only on Wi-Fi, not mobile broadband, and who already pay for a 3G connection, in any location other than the home or office.

Perhaps the more obvious application is a temporary Wi-Fi hotspot for business users in a workgroup setting. But I'd be willing to be that is only one of many uses consumers will find for the MiFi.

For some, the only additional required value might be the ability to use their 3G access device without tying up a USB port. For others it is the ability to access the Internet from their Wi-Fi devices wherever they can get a 3G signal, without needing separate 3G connections for each discrete device.

The point is that hard dollar savings will drive the value for some users, while for others it might be something as simple as "not tying up a USB port." Along the way, clever users will figure out other ways why a MiFi connection adds more value for a mobile broadband connection than using an aircard or dongle.

Quantifying the Carrier Wi-Fi Hotspot Business Model

Customer retention--not direct customer fees--might be the biggest part of the carrier public hotspot busimess model, says Stephen Rayment, CTO, BelAir Networks.

"Churn reduction is where lots of the value is," is Rayment. Assume churn per month of two percent a month, which means a typical customer provides 50 months of revenue, he says.

Adding metro hotspot access can provide a 10 percent churn reduction, he adds. Assume the 10 percent churn benefit on a typical subscriber relationship of 50 months, meaning the typical account now remains active for 55 months. Assume a typical customer average revenue per user of $130 a month.

That suggests an extra $650 of subscriber revenue over the length of a relationship. For a service provider with 100,000 subscribers that works out to $65 million in extra revenue.

If the average customer value is $2,000 per customer, and that service provider can use public hotspot service to reduce churn 10 percent, it adds about $200 per subscriber in terms of equity value.

For a service provider with one million subscribers, that's $200 million in incremental equity revenue.

For a service provider with one million subs, making an investment of $40 million to cover all the high-traffic spots, there is a five-to-one return on investment.

There arguably could be other revenue contributors as well, though none likely approaches the value of enhanced retention. There might be an opportunity for a small amount of additional revenue. Some customers will be willing to be stand-alone hotspot subscriptions.

Service providers might make some money from other carriers by offering hotspot access to customers roaming into the local area. There could be some advertising upside or some commercial upside from providing services to public utilities or public safety organizations, he says.

Some service providers also might look at public Wi-Fi as a way to add some mobility features to their landline service.

Mobile providers also likely will find public hotspots a useful way to offload traffic from the 3G and 4G networks to the fixed network, Rayment says.

"The networks are just choking" because of heavy new smartphone traffic, says Rayment. "People really did not see this until the iPhone, but 3 in the U.K. market also saw skyrocketing demand when it started selling the iPhone," says Rayment.

Up to this point, aircards and dongles used for mobile PC connections have been driving new bandwidth demand on the 3G and WiMAX networks. But that is changing. "Dongles drove the initial demand, but will be overtaken by the smartphone," he says.

Peer-to-peer Wi-Fi: Bluetooth Killer?

A new peer-to-peer Wi-Fi specification sponsored by the Wi-Fi Alliance will enable Wi-Fi devices to connect to one another directly without joining a traditional home, office, or hotspot network. 

The Wi-Fi Alliance expects to begin certification for this new specification in mid-2010 and products which achieve the certification will be designated "Wi-Fi CERTIFIED Wi-Fi Direct."

The specification can be implemented in any Wi-Fi device, from mobile phones, cameras, printers, and notebook computers, to human interface devices such as keyboards and headphones. 

Significantly, devices that have been certified to the new specification will also be able to create connections with hundreds of millions of Wi-Fi CERTIFIED legacy devices already in use. 

Devices will be able to make a one-to-one connection, or a group of several devices can connect simultaneously.

The specification targets both consumer electronics and enterprise applications, provides management features for enterprise environments, and includes WPA2 security. Devices that support the specification will be able to discover one another and advertise available services.  

Wi-Fi CERTIFIED Wi-Fi Direct devices will support typical Wi-Fi ranges and the same data rates as can be achieved with an infrastructure connection, so devices can connect from across a home or office and conduct bandwidth-hungry tasks with ease.   

Though some might fear the specification will damage sales of Wi-Fi access points, the new P2P networking technique seems more a threat to near-field standards such as Bluetooth. For some applications, such as file sharing, the extended Wi-Fi range will make it a better option than Bluetooth for public near-field communications, for example. 

Such proximity marketing techniques sometimes are used to allow users to interact with electronic billboards, for example. P2P Wi-Fi ought to be easier to use, and also will have greater range. 

Qwest Adds National Wi-Fi Access

Qwest Communications has joined the ranks of service providers for whom the Wi-Fi hotspot business model is cable modem or digital subscriber line service. The move also illustrates the growing trend to offer broadband access irrespective of how a network provides that access.

The next step for some providers will be broadband subscriptions that cover fixed or mobile access. For Qwest, the new features add a key mobility element for its fixed service.

Qwest broadband access customers now have free, unlimited nationwide access to Qwest Wi-Fi offered at 17,000 hotspots, powered by the AT&T Wi-Fi network.

A recent survey Qwest sponsored found nearly half of all respondents valued Wi-Fi because it provided them with the freedom and flexibility to stay connected beyond the home or office. In other words, users increasingly expect Internet access wherever they are.

"Our study showed that nearly half of all respondents get ‘antsy,’ in about an hour, if they can’t check e-mail, social networking sites or instant messaging," says Dan Yost, Qwest executive vice president.

Cablevision Systems Corp. Introduces Mobile Portal

If you are looking for some idea of what a cable-centric wireless service might look like, consider what Cablevision Systems Corp. is doing. After putting into place an extensive metro Wi-Fi network, it is launching a  mobile version of its Optimum.net Web portal that's designed for all forms of cellular handsets but tailored for the company's 2.5 million cable modem subscribers.

The new mobile platform, accessible to handset browsers at m.optimum.net, is starting off with features including email, local traffic, weather, movie theater info, and access to Cablevision's digital TV lineup, but a remote DVR scheduler is on the roadmap.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=175683&site=cdn

WeFi, fring expand VoIP over Wi-Fi Options

WeFi Inc, an open global Wi-Fi network, and fring, a leading mobile Internet community and communication service, today launched the WeFi add-on for fring that gives users mobile access to the largest database of 20 million Wi-Fi access points worldwide, said to be growing by over one million a month.

The new WeFi add-on for fring provides users with easy and free access to millions of Wi-Fi hotspots from their mobile devices. The alpha test of this service has been particularly popular with business and pleasure travelers, WeFi says.

The WeFi add-on currently works on hundreds of Symbian and Windows Mobile devices with the latest version of fring which can be downloaded or upgraded from www.fring.com/download/.

A full list of supported handsets is available at www.fring.com/download/default_PC.asp.

To locate and access millions of hotspots from these mobile devices, users simply select the WeFi add-on from the add-ons tab within fring. Users can locate their Wi-Fi hotspot location automatically using their handset’s GPS capability, or manually by typing in any address worldwide.

www.fring.com/download/

Tweet Shows IP Impact

"The terrible phone connection I was blaming on our VoIP line turns out to be the cordless phone clashing with WiFi," says Matthew Weinberg. "May need to go corded."

That's as good an example of any about the changes IP technology has wrought for service providers, who no longer can simply sell a connection, terminate at a network interface and hand off the premises network and devices to an end user. That generally worked when interface specifications were stringent and the total number of devices and applications were limited.

These days the application and device environment is much more complex. But users will call their service provider when applications or devices don't work properly. One way or the other, greater involvement in premises networks and configuration are required.